When the Smart Guys get it Wrong

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In technology we do a lot of hero worshiping, especially the disruptors. What happens when their moats dry up and their great ideas start showing cracks?

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SHOW NOTES:

WE CELEBRATE THE BIG FUNDING, THE DISRUPTORS AND THE STORIES

When things are good - low interest rates, stock price is up, VC money is flowing in, disruption gets valued at high multiples - lots of stories get written about the disruptors. But when things change - the stories are written about their failures.

BUT THE DISRUPTION RARELY LAST FOREVER.

  • It’s important to match the disruption era with the economic era.
  • A lot of stories will be written about how badly the economics of the “disruptor companies” were during the halcyon days (Uber, WeWork, Netflix, etc.)
  • Frauds will be called out.
  • Culture will remain important, but impossible to replicate cultures will get dissected, and profitability will take precedence over culture.
  • The ecosystems of the largest companies will start to wonder if it’s still a good idea, as the largest expand their offerings.
  • Good new technologies will have lower visibility and have to build staying power.

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