George Friedman, Peter Zeihan. Ukraine, Russia, China, Taiwan


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George Friedman, Peter Zeihan. Ukraine, Russia, China, Taiwan

  • Ukraine Draws the Limits of Power to Russia & China | George Friedman
  • China Is Not Russia and Taiwan Is Not Ukraine | Peter Zeihan
  • Ukraine's Geography and Economy
  • Putin's Russia Is Dying in Ukraine, Intelligence | Peter Zeihan, George Friedman

Ukraine Draws the Limits of Power to Russia & China | George Friedman


Apr 29, 2022


While politicians and analysts worry that China might take advantage of the Ukraine war to seize Taiwan, they should consider Beijing’s potential windfall from the geopolitical and economic collapse of its closest international partner. Already, China has been served up a rich offering of Russia’s distressed companies and trade-sanctioned oil, gas, coal, gold, industrial metals, and food commodities suddenly made illegal to most other countries on world markets. At a time of record food prices, US$100 oil, and raging global inflation, China has been gifted access to this bounty of discounted resources, courtesy of Russia’s self-inflicted crisis and the unprecedented level of sanctions imposed on its economy by the West. (India, the other major beneficiary, has already picked up a cargo of Russia’s Urals crude at a discount of 20 percent in defiance of Western sentiments and sanctions). The Russians are also pumping hard cash into China’s slowing economy. Cut off from the global banking system, desperate Russian companies and individuals are rushing to open accounts with Chinese financial institutions. The capital flight and transfer of wealth from Russia into the world’s second-largest economy are likely to be substantial and possibly sustained. Source: ✅ Subscribe: #Evergrande #Ukrainewar #GeorgeFriedman #Energycrisis #China Ukraine Draws the limits of Power to Russia & China | George Friedman

China Is Not Russia and Taiwan Is Not Ukraine | Peter Zeihan


May 1, 2022


22.8K subscribers

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine — the most consequential military conflict Europe has witnessed since the Second World War — has riveted the attention of the world. Observers have grappled with the meaning of the act of aggression and scrambled to ponder the wider implications of the war. Almost inevitably people look to draw analogies—both historical and contemporary ones. One popular contemporary analogy is between Russia’s actions vis-à-vis Ukraine and China’s approach to Taiwan. Beyond some broad-brush parallels — the most obvious parallel being that both Ukraine and Taiwan are peace-loving democracies that are the objects of belligerent irredentism on the part of more militarily powerful and threatening neighboring autocracies — there are also significant differences. Xi Jinping’s China is not Vladimir Putin’s Russia, and Taiwan is not Ukraine. China Is Not Russia Russia under Putin has repeatedly dispatched its armed forces for combat missions overseas to a range of countries, including Georgia, Syria and Ukraine, as well as conducted major military interventions against other states, most recently Kazakhstan (albeit at the invitation of that country’s president). Moscow has also actively supported armed groups and militias in some of these same countries and others. Taiwan Is Not Ukraine The fact that Ukraine is not a member of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) was almost certainly a decisive factor in Putin’s calculus to invade Ukraine. Russia’s commander in chief knew that his invading forces would likely not have to contend with the militaries of any other countries. And if there were any lingering doubts in the Kremlin about the disposition of the most powerful member of NATO, U.S. President Joe Biden stated publicly that the United States would not send military forces to help defend Ukraine. Nevertheless, the Biden administration has taken strong steps to reinforce NATO allies in Eastern Europe and provide robust military assistance to Ukraine. ✅ Subscribe: #China #Ukrainewar #Taiwan #Peterzeihan #energycrisis China Is Not Russia and Taiwan Is Not Ukraine | Peter Zeihan Source: Global Macro Series #12 | feat. Peter Zeihan Here’s What Happens If China Invades Taiwan 古琴Guqin】《初见》---古琴深情獨奏《东宫》主題曲 | 自得琴社

Ukraine's Geography and Economy


Apr 28, 2022

Zeihan on Geopolitics

Putin's Russia Is Dying in Ukraine, Intelligence | Peter Zeihan George Friedman


Apr 29, 2022


Russia and its military have lagged considerably behind the Ukrainians in several categories: logistics, communications, and especially in metabolizing and deploying new technology, such as drones. It is especially in this latter instance where Kyiv has shown a remarkable nimbleness over Moscow. But the battle is now shifting to an artillery tit-for-tat in eastern Ukraine, where Stingers and short-range drones will be less useful for the Ukrainians. It is also exactly the kind of battle that the Russians have trained for, and is why I believe my overall assessment will still hold: that the Russians will ultimately overrun the Ukrainians, especially as the conflict moves past May. Russia's lagging technological prowess has several historical analogues. One of the best known is the Battle of Crimea, a battle that Russia ultimately lost. The outcome isn't what I want to highlight here, but rather that Russia spent years and roughly half a million lives until it surrendered. In conflicts that Russia deems necessary to its survival--against Napoleon, the Brits and the French, the Germans, Hitler--the Russians will fight until they simply cannot fight any longer. Do not expect the current war in Ukraine to be any different. The fatality figures reported from Ukraine are staggering. Some 7,000 to 15,000 Russian soldiers, many of them inexperienced conscripts, are already reported dead after a month of fighting, according to NATO estimates. That’s already likely higher than the more than 10,000 losses Russia suffered in Chechnya over two campaigns of fighting (1994-1996 and 1999-2000) and on par with the 15,000 losses the Soviet Union took over a decade in Afghanistan—much less the 2,500 U.S. soldiers lost fighting in Afghanistan over two decades. The body bags from Ukraine will only pile up higher as Russian forces move in to fight and capture key urban areas. 00:00:00 Peter Zeihan 00:03:30 George Friedman ✅ Subscribe: #PeterZeihan #Ukrainewar #GeorgeFriedman #Energycrisis Putin's Russia Is Dying in Ukraine, Intelligence | Peter Zeihan George Friedman

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