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Welcome to Gestalt University, hosted by the team at ReSolve Asset Management, where evidence inspires confidence. This podcast will dig deep to uncover investment truths and life hacks you won't find in the mainstream media, covering topics that appeal to left-brained robots, right-brain poets and everyone in between. In this show, we interview deep thinkers in the world of quantitative finance such as Larry Swedroe, Meb Faber and many more, all with the goal of helping you reach excellence ...
 
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show series
 
Today the repurchase agreement is the backstop, the 'lender of last resort', for the global monetary system. Over a century ago it was the Federal Reserve that created the repo market. But funnily enough, since its creation they have largely ignored it. ****SPONSOR**** Purchase shares in great masterpieces from artists like Pablo Picasso, Banksy, A…
 
On August 9, 2007 the second largest bank in Europe - BNP Paribas - kicked off the Global Financial Crisis (2007-09) and the Silent Depression (2007-2?). It started with three illiquid money market funds. ****DISCLOSURES**** Jeffrey Snider (The Promoter) is acting as a promoter for an investment advisory firm, Atlas Financial Advisors, Inc. (AFA). …
 
The Payroll Report (Establishment Survey) is not wrong but it is inappropriate. Heavy statistical dampening prevents the payroll report from showing economic inflections. Meanwhile, the Household Survey - note statistically constrained - is emitting recession warnings. ****DISCLOSURES**** Jeffrey Snider (The Promoter) is acting as a promoter for an…
 
Today’s guest is Claudia Sahm, who is the founder of Stay-At-Home Macro Consulting. She also writes a Substack of the same name, stayathomemacro.substack.com. She is a former Federal Reserve analyst, and also a former White House economic adviser. Claudia and I discussed the interaction between fiscal and monetary policy, and how the government and…
 
Central bankers use ‘Term Premia’ to cover for their grave, fundamental mistakes: A) not understanding bond markets, and B) putting themselves at the center of the monetary system. ****DISCLOSURES**** Jeffrey Snider (The Promoter) is acting as a promoter for an investment advisory firm, Atlas Financial Advisors, Inc. (AFA). Jeffrey Snider is affili…
 
The European Central Bank raised rates in July 2008 because consumer prices were too high; the Global Financial Crisis climax came next. They did it again, in July 2011, for the same reason; the European Sovereign Debt crisis appeared shortly after. Here we go again, a July 2022 rate hike, same reasons; what happens next? ****EP. 269 REFERENCES****…
 
James Bullard, St. Louis Fed chief, says the yield curve is twisted by the inflation surge, and may not be a recession message. Indeed, markets are twisting it because they have confidence the central bank will get control of consumer prices. ----EP. 268 REFERENCES---- Derby’s Take: Fed’s Bullard Says Yield-Curve Signal Might Not Be So Ominous: htt…
 
Logan is one of the foremost experts on the state and health of the U.S. housing market. In his capacity as Lead Analyst for HousingWire, he invokes a comprehensive data-driven framework for understanding the fundamental drivers of housing supply and demand. Logan demonstrated his expertise on the subject, bringing to bear data and analysis from a …
 
On May 20, 1982 the Fed held an emergency conference call for which transcripts are missing (on purpose? by accident?) to solve the "Drysdale Problem". They 'solved' it by focusing on the trees and ignoring the forest. ----EP. 267 REFERENCES---- Since When Does the Fed Funds Rate Have Anything To Do With Anything?: https://bit.ly/3ougulL RealClear …
 
What if Japan's bond and currency markets aren't really about Japan at all? ----EP. 266 REFERENCES---- Global Euro$ Confirmation: http://www.marketsinsiderpro.com/ RealClear Markets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7 Epoch Times Columns: https://bit.ly/39ESkRf -------THE EPISODES------- YouTube: https://bit.ly/310yisL Vurbl: https://bit.ly/3rq4dPn Appl…
 
The US Treasury Department's Treasury International Capital report for the wild month of May 2022 goes a long way to describing our current economic and monetary predicament. ----EP. 265 REFERENCES---- When Global Banks Won't TIC: http://www.marketsinsiderpro.com/ RealClear Markets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7 Epoch Times Columns: https://bit.ly/…
 
The conversation was motivated by Demetri’s tweets about MMT and fiscal policy, which stirred up quite a conflagration, and involved several primary exponents of MMT including Warren Mosler and Rohan Gray. Adam and Demetri spent the first 35 or 40 minutes on MMT, mostly overcoming the frustration around the politicization of the concept. They discu…
 
On December 1, 2021 the Eurodollar Futures yield curve inverted by a single basis point, which set off recession warning sirens, claxons and clucking at Eurodollar University. Now? The curve is 120 basis points inverted - a warning that something more than 'just a recession' is plausible (possible? probable?!!!!!!). ----SPONSOR---- Purchase shares …
 
The US Treasury yield curve continues to spread and has reached the 52-week bill. The Fed is being told by the market it will be CUTTING rates, soon. ----EP. 263 REFERENCES---- RealClear Markets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7 Epoch Times Columns: https://bit.ly/39ESkRf -------THE EPISODES------- YouTube: https://bit.ly/310yisL Vurbl: https://bit.ly…
 
Foreign institutions have been merrily losing money on US Treasury holdings for years, buying high and selling low - are they insane? No, their investment behavior reveals that these bonds are used for managing risk, global systemic risk. ----EP. 262 REFERENCES---- The Rest of the World's Dollar-Weighted Return on U.S. Treasurys: http://www.nber.or…
 
The Economist recounts how the pandemic led to a goods-consumption-boom and whether post-pandemic economics means normalization, or a services boom or a recession. ----EP. 261 REFERENCES---- Could a shift from goods to services ease inflation?: https://econ.st/3OYNOwQ RealClear Markets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7 Epoch Times Columns: https://bit…
 
The Economist admits to, warns of and draws attention to Britain's 15-year economic depression, labeling it a "slow-burning crisis", "long-standing", "stagnation nation" and "a chronic disease". There are many devastating socioeconomic, geopolitical consequences. It's not just Britain, it's the world. ----EP. 260 REFERENCES---- Low economic growth …
 
The US labor market offers both optimistic and pessimistic data points regarding the economic outlook. Does the value of the US dollar break the tie? How do sovereign bond yields in Europe fit into the picture? ----EP. 259 REFERENCES---- Steve Van Metre: http://www.portfolioshield.net/ RealClear Markets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7 Epoch Times Co…
 
Steven Van Metre and Jeff Snider have partnered together to bring financial information, investment advice and monetary education to the public. ----EP. 258 REFERENCES---- Steve Van Metre: http://www.portfolioshield.net/ RealClear Markets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7 Epoch Times Columns: https://bit.ly/39ESkRf -------THE EPISODES------- YouTube: …
 
The Federal Reserve Bank of New York is forecasting the median result of its model predicts negative output growth in 2022 and 2023. ----EP. 257 REFERENCES---- Sorry Chairman Powell, Even FRBNY Now Has To Forecast Serious and Seriously Rising Recession Risk: https://bit.ly/39Syy5p The New York Fed DSGE Model Forecast—June 2022: https://nyfed.org/3O…
 
A comprehensive report by the Federal Reserve - the Financial Accounts of the US - reveals that there has been no material change in rate of money creation. Not in the US (on par with an incrementally increasing but still PATHETIC 2007-21 trend), not in the rest of the world (equal to 2007-21 garbage rates). ----EP. 256 REFERENCES---- The Everythin…
 
This week we welcomed back our good friend Jason Buck (founder and CIO of Mutiny Fund) for the final episode before the summer break. Our conversation included: Recent price action in the commodity space The incredible confidence of the ‘buy the dip’ equity investors An end to the “bad news is good news” regime The mental pivot required to successf…
 
Japanese and German trade data suggest the world is suffering through a price illusion: trade value is up because prices are up but actual trade by volume / trade by weight is falling (at least in Germany and Japan). Also, commodity prices suggest global slowdown/recession is approaching. ----EP. 255 REFERENCES---- Everything Hitting The Global (eu…
 
The latest purchasing manager surveys (services, manufacturing, composite) and manufacturing index (Kansas City Fed) suggest the United States is heading towards a recession, soon (maybe already?). ----EP. 254 REFERENCES---- Alhambra Investments Blog: https://bit.ly/3wh01G2 RealClear Markets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7 Epoch Times Columns: https…
 
How does a former bank trader with billions of euros in assets react to an impending recession? Is the inflection in bond yields (back down) and prices (back up) starting right now? Did the European Central Bank just warn of a re-run of the 2011-12 European Sovereign Debt Crisis? ----EP. 253 REFERENCES---- Alfonso Peccatiello's Substack: https://Th…
 
Jeff Snider explains how the global currency and monetary systems actually work, the origins of the Eurodollar system, Triffin’s Paradox and the breakdown of the Bretton Woods System, the stampede towards prime collateral at all costs, the importance of sentiment and why the main role of central banks is theatrical, how vast swathes of the real eco…
 
This week we had the pleasure of welcoming Jeff Snider (Head of Global Investment Research at Alhambra Investments) and Emil Kalinowski (enterprising investor, author and host of both a talk radio show and a podcast). Together, they co-host Eurodollar University podcast and shed light on the complexities of the global monetary system. Our conversat…
 
One day prior to the Federal Reserve raising its policy rate by a *bananas* big 75-basis point the Eurodollar Futures market moved its yield curve inversion into the next four quarters. As fast as the Fed is hiking, the market is betting it will 'imminently-ish' be cutting. Market contempt! ----EP. 251 REFERENCES---- More Data And Markets To The Id…
 
The pinnacle of investigative, introspective financial journalism assembled in front of the Federal Reserve chairman on June 15, 2022 and asked him... questions? Hardly. Weak sauce. In this episode Jeff Snider responds as a Fed chairman SHOULD respond - honestly. ----EP. 250 REFERENCES---- Transcript of Press Questions at Fed Conference June 15, 20…
 
Jeff Snider reacts live to Jay Powell's June 15, 2022 opening statement to assembled members of the press regarding the Federal Reserve's 75-basis point rate hike to the Federal Funds target range: the overarching message, overall economic activity, inflation, labor, and the 3/4-point move. ----EP. 249 REFERENCES---- Transcript of Chair Powell’s Pr…
 
For this week’s special episode, Adam, Mike, Rodrigo and Richard gathered to explore the building blocks of an ultimate All Weather portfolio. Our conversation included: The blind spots of the 60/40 stock-bond portfolio Regime dependency and economic shocks Diversifiable versus non-diversifiable risks How to create an optimal portfolio that can nav…
 
We had the pleasure this week of speaking with Cem Karsan (the pronunciation can be a bit challenging, bit the hint is in his Twitter handle - @jam_croissant), founder of Kai Volatility Advisors. His deep knowledge of market structures and investment flows took us on a fascinating conversation that included: Joining a team early in his career that …
 
The Crash of 1907 'convinced' Washington DC that a central bank was needed. Or, perhaps more likely, the Crash of 1907 was used as an excuse for a national central bank. ----EP. 248 REFERENCES---- The Premium For Cash Is Presently Enormous: https://bit.ly/3xr0G7l Alhambra Investments Blog: https://bit.ly/3wh01G2 RealClear Markets Essays: https://bi…
 
We are told that Paul Volcker led the Federal Reserve into the breech and bravely and knowingly raised short-term interest rates so as to bring about a recession and extinguish the 1970s Great Inflation. But according to Fed transcripts Volcker & Co. fell ass-backwards into recession. ----EP. 247 REFERENCES---- Monetary Policy Is All Talk All the T…
 
US consumer prices rose 8.6% year-over-year for the month of May 2022, says the US Bureau of Labor Statistics. Economists, financial media and central banks implicitly conflate this price expansion with money expansion (inflation) and economic expansion (booming) - that's a mistake. ----EP. 246 REFERENCES---- CPIs Aren't the Economy, and They're No…
 
Pine-Richland High School won a 120+ team international competition debating whether the dollar's hegemony is detrimental. Pine-Richland won due to their preparation, perspiration, inspiration... and because they ambushed the competition with something called "the eurodollar". Sponsored by the Brewer Foundation, each year the International Public P…
 
US President Joe Biden has a three-step plan to address the vulnerable US economy. We agree the economy is vulnerable but note that it is not for the reasons the president believes. Also, we note similarities between President Xi Jingping's 2017 messaging and Biden's 2022 narrative. ----EP. 244 REFERENCES---- Joe Biden: My Plan for Fighting Inflati…
 
Two short-term money markets are yielding LESS THAN the Federal Reserve's RISK FREE reverse repurchase agreement program. Despite the Fed offering now $2 trillion in Treasury securities to the market the 'below-market' yields are signaling there's not enough money / credit / collateral / securities available -- a money shortage. ----EP. 243 REFEREN…
 
The Eurodollar Futures yield curve inverted on December 1, 2021 warning that somewhere over the horizon there was trouble. In March 2022 the US Treasury curve inverted too, confirming the earlier alert. Today the Eurodollar market is warning that trouble is on the horizon itself, and approaching. ----EP. 242 REFERENCES---- UST 2s & Euro$ Futures *W…
 
This week Adam and Rodrigo of ReSolve Global* had the pleasure of speaking with Jason Josephiac of Meketa Investment Group. Our conversation spanned topics including: His background in the industry and joining Meketa Asset Allocation: label/category diversification vs. risk/functional diversification Risk Parity vs. Traditional Asset Allocation Wha…
 
According to the US Census Bureau both retailers and wholesalers reported *bananas-crazy* increases in inventory levels. As the US economy tips over into a slowdown - and realistically a recession - these inventories will have to be purged at fire-sale prices. ----EP. 241 REFERENCES---- Inventory Flood Continues Just As Consumers Tap Out: https://a…
 
Target, Walmart, Japanese merchandise exports, German retail sales, and the early-morning hours of US Treasury Bill trading are all sending the same message: escalating, systemic fragility of the economic order. ----EP. 240 REFERENCES---- T-bills Targeted Target: https://bit.ly/3zf5teH Can’t Blame COVID For This One: https://bit.ly/3Miq6JM Alhambra…
 
A generation ago banks knew that there was money to be made and they acted upon that faith, creating money for the world economy to enrich itself. But ever since 2008 banks have been scared to do it; the risk is too great! The Global Financial Crisis never ended, it continues to the present. ----EP. 239 REFERENCES---- It Isn't the Fed's Theater of …
 
The Federal Reserve is hiking rates as part of political theater in response to pressure from the legislative and executive branches of the US government. 'Do something!' A panoply of economic, monetary and financial accounts are screaming for looser monetary policy, not tighter. ----EP. 238 REFERENCES---- History Shows the Fed Would Be Cutting Rat…
 
The Federal Reserve, we are told, controls interest rates. We have learned over and over that is not true with long-term rates (e.g. yield curve inversion, Greenspan's "conundrum"). But what about short-term rates? Surely the Fed is in control. No, not really - just look at US Treasury Bills. ----EP. 237 REFERENCES---- Why the Fed Can’t Hike T-bill…
 
Our guest this week was Rob Van Wielingen, President & CEO of Viewpoint Investment Partners, a boutique investment management firm offering systematic strategies to private and institutional investors. Our conversation included: The Van Wielingen family background in the oil and gas industry Rob’s decision at an early age to focus on finance and te…
 
Retail sales - a temperature check on the American consumer - were absolutely fabulous in April 2022; glory, hallelujah! So then why are three different, independent surveys of the US consumer reporting results that range from "bad" to "miserable"? Because there has been NO REAL growth, only nominal. ----EP. 236 REFERENCES---- Shipping Around Retai…
 
The Chinese reported how their economy has fared in the month of April 2022 - the results were very, very poor. It is tempting to say the illness is Beijing's 'Zero Covid' lockdown of hundreds of millions of souls. But the true illness is the long-term, degenerative money shortage. ----EP. 235 REFERENCES---- Synchronized Not Coronavirus: https://bi…
 
This week we had the pleasure of speaking with Andy Constan (CEO / CIO at Damped Spring Advisors) and prolific member of the FinTwit community under the @dampedspring penname. Our conversation spanned topics including: His long and interesting career in the investment world Starting with equity derivatives and eventually earning his ‘global macro e…
 
The Federal Reserve is hiking interest rates while the European Central Bank is in no rush to raise its policy rates. The Economics Textbook and Financial Media say that is why the dollar is rising and the euro is falling: interest rate differentials. But that is not it! ----EP. 234 REFERENCES---- What Really ‘Raises’ The Rising ‘Dollar’: https://b…
 
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